Nber business cycle dating committee
CAMBRIDGE July 17 -- The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an expansion.
It places particular emphasis on real personal income excluding transfers and on employment, since both measures reflect activity across the entire economy.The estimates of real GDP issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U. Department of Commerce are only available quarterly.Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error.Reinforcing the conclusion that the trough did not occur in December, two of the monthly indicators-personal income excluding transfers and the estimates of monthly real GDP-grew very rapidly in December, and the sales series grew as well.
These considerations indicate that the trough occurred in September, October, or November.Based on this information, the committee concluded that the economy reached a trough in November.