Who does the official dating of recessions
In the United States, it’s generally accepted that GDP must drop for two consecutive quarters for a true recession to take place.However, the IMF does not specify a minimum length of time when examining global recessions.But a recession can quietly begin before the quarterly gross domestic product reports are out.That's why the National Bureau of Economic Research measures the other four factors. When these economic indicators decline, so will GDP.The NBER uses the skill, judgment, and expertise of its commissioners to determine whether the country is in a recession. It can use monthly data to determine when a peak has occurred and when the economy has just started to decline.That allows it to be more precise and timely in its measurements. It's the official arbiter of economic expansions and contractions.Over a decade later, the effects can still be felt in many developed nations and emerging markets.
For example, a country's trading relationships with the rest of the world determine the scale of impact on its manufacturing sector.A global recession is an extended period of economic decline around the world.